Rise of China and Pacific Asia

China boosts a civilisation that is 3000 years old. Recent rise of China since 1978 only can be compared with the rise of United States between the Civil War and the First World War in 1914. Last 27 years of reform and growth has shown the world the magnitude of China’s labour force, creativity and purchasing power. Academics and policy makers started debating the rise of China from as early as beginning of twentieth century but the intensity of the debate increased after the end of cold war. As the old saying goes, nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only interests — and these interests can be achieved in a myriad of ways. China’s rise will certainly shape this region friends and foes status quo and policies economically, politically and militarily. To understand the gravity of the overall affect on the region this essay will look into these three aspects.

Though this region can be defined with forty countries near Pacific Ocean, this essay will mention more about the states that has more significance in the rise of China, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. However the general arguments apply to most of the country and the influence of China is not limited to the Pacific Asia region only. The stability of Chinese economy depends on lot of factors that might changes in course of time. Economic relations with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan and other states often overlap with political interests. Demand of resource may require her to adopt aggressive energy policy which might change the security environment. Integrating Taiwan and adhering North Korean and Burmese regime under constant pressures from United States and its allies Japan and South Korea is big political challenges for China.

Economic Impact:

Firstly let us explore the economical consequences for the region. Chinese economy depends to an unhealthy degree on exports. According to CIA fact book China is second largest exporting country (roughly 40% of GNP compared to more normal 20% at most for a large and populous continental state) (www.cia.gov, 15th Dec 10). China’s continuous growth rate and its future domestic challenges require it to continue its growth. Small neighbour countries thus suffer from a big economic competitor who is not easy to compete with. Though Japan, South Korea, Taiwan has strong export link with China, they hardly can deny Chinese upper hand on economic policy choices.

The implications of China’s globalization and rise as a major economic power can also be seen in its impact both on Beijing and on policy deliberations in Taipei, Tokyo, and Seoul. ( Nanto,D & Avery,E. 2006.p2, www.fas.org). These cities hold huge Chinese trade interests, especially in technological sector. Rise of China is enabling it to go into wider world market and making it less dependant into these big cities of the region. Hence China's pursuit of bilateral and regional trade agreements with neighbouring countries is more about politics than economics. Its "free-trade agreement" with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), for example, covers only a small share of its commerce with the countries in question; it is simply an effort to calm their fears of being swamped by their huge neighbour.

China being the big horse in the region after Japan and holding ‘developing’ label can exert policies that might not regard the regional economic consequences as it should.
Fred Bergsten blamed China for the failure of Doha Round of international trade negotiations.Beijing’s demand to have no liberalisation obligations has given birth of a new category of membership ("recently acceded members") to justify its recalcitrance, he further added.(Bergsten, 2008),

However there are positives elements of China’s economic rise as well. Zheng Bijian argued ‘China's peaceful rise will further open its economy so that its population can serve as a growing market for the rest of the world, thus providing increased opportunities for - rather than posing a threat to the international community.’ (Bijian, 2005.) China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have strong vested interests in the smooth and continuous operation of the system. Japanese investment and technology are critical to Chinese future, as is an amicable relationship with Tokyo. This has given some fresh air into their mutual conflicts.

Economic integration in there is not as extensive as that in the European Union or under the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), but it is developing rapidly. Not only are these economies trading more extensively with each other, but their production processes are becoming vertically integrated. China acts as the manufacturing platform while neighbouring countries provide investment capital, finance, technology, management skills, and expertise.The economies of this region thus are the beneficiary of this trend.

Political Impact

Secondly let us look at the political impacts in the region. The underlying political trend in this region is mostly about Chinese competition with Japan and US. However it is interesting to note that China’s foreign policy is determined to remain in peaceful discourse to achieve her goal. Chinese foreign policy is exerted mostly by peaceful soft power projections and predominantly via trade deals. Taiwan’s investors own roughly 70% of China’s information technology industry. By creating a dependency by Taiwan’s businesses on Chinese workers, subsidiaries, sources of supply, and markets, China has sought to win the “hearts and minds” of Taiwanese business interests. Also in comparison to western aids China is deliberately very generous in its aid policy by not attaching many conditions like human rights and labour condition etc; In return they are seeking maximum possible supports from the recipient nations for their international political objectives. (Bergsten, F.2008).

Another political aspect in the region that determines Chinese role is the political connection with regions authoritarian regimes. Burma’s economic and political lifeline is very much dependant of Chinese assistance. When US have cut off virtually all economic and diplomatic relations in protest of its authoritarian regime and suppression of democracy, China even increased their assistance to them.

China is the biggest trade partner and main source of food, arms and fuel of another controversial country in the region North Korea. It is not practical at all for western allies to ignore China in addressing North and South Korea’s tension. China is a vital member of Six Party Talks to address North Korean Nuclear crisis. Rise of China might make them bolder in supporting these nations. Thus the instability created by this two country in the region will rely heavily on how China regard its relation with these states.

‘Resource’ is another key word to define Chinese political discourse in the region after the ideological status quo. Thus Chinese diplomacy is increasingly driven by the need to make sure that it has dependable, diversified, secure oil reserves and the means to get them to China. (Hutton, W.2007.p.x237). To achieve these goals Chinese foreign policy included options like awarding aid, forgiving national debt, and helping build roads, bridges, stadiums, and harbours. Beijing's access to foreign resources is necessary both for continued economic growth and, because growth is the cornerstone of China's social stability, for the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Hutton argued that ‘For decades the doctrine of peaceful rise meant that China has tried to secure energy and raw materials without confronting the United States and the West. (Hutton, W.2007.p.237).

Reunification with Taiwan topped the China’s agenda after Hong-Kong and Macau’s return to China in1997 and 199 respectively. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman reminded the world after President Chen’s re-election in 2004, that ‘No one should underestimate China’s resolve to achieve unification’, for which Beijing was ready to pay any price the PRC.( South China Morning Post, 15th April 2004, Tubilewicz,C. 2006.p.256). Waldrone expressed pessimistic opinion about this ‘at present neither China nor the United States has any clear idea of how to resolve this problem, nor has it rest of Asia grasped the stake it has in what happens. (Waldrone, A. 2005, p.730).

Military Impact

Finally let us look at the military consequences that the region will face by rise of China. Waldrone argued that ‘China’s rearmament will probably lead to an Asia that spends far more on its militaries than is the case today, thus making war both less likely and more costly.’ (Waldrone. 2005, p.730) The likeliness of a war in this region is in not totally unrealistic. The danger of a rising power is that it overestimates its own strength and might launch a war in miscalculation or might feel in a tensed situation that a momentary advantage is slipping away, and seek pre-emptive attack. Furthermore existing tensions in this region such as the conflict of South and North Korea, Taiwanese provocation to declare its independence, disputes with Japan; possibly can produce such scenario.

Taiwan holds an important strategic position in the sea which has military and economic consequences. As a democratic state having no territorial ambition Taiwan has no ambition to interfere in this crucial sea path. However this route can be used by China as a military advantage if it gains control over Taiwan. Japan which held Taiwan from 1895 until the end of Second World War enjoyed this privilege.

Japan is more and more self –assertively nationalistic, confident of the United States’ defensive nuclear umbrella. The disputes over Senkaku islands (claimed by China as Diaoyutai) have taunted the relations significantly. It is Japan’s assistance that US would seek first to retaliate against China in any possible military disputes such as potential US invasion of North Korea. North Korea as previously been mentioned is a strong Chinese ally, pause a serious military threats to South Korea. Very recent as early as this December (2010), the world has witnessed how vulnerable is South Korea against North Korean belligerence. Here the US threats and South Korean revenge oaths fell on deaf ear after North Korea shelled a South Korean Island and killed three soldiers. Interesting fact to note from this event is that everyone was waiting to know how the Chinese response.

China’s recent naval strategy adds new concern in the region with the existing ones. It is clear that in future she intends to establish single monopoly by outsmarting US presence. Beijing is reported to be helping Pakistan build a port at Gwadar, upgrading a military airstrip in the South China Sea and monitoring stations in Myanmar, and negotiating for naval facilities in Bangladesh. The rise of China will encourage her to set up more vigorous display of strength in order to display the strength for safeguarding the country's interests, the capability of reciprocal deterrence and to control international shipping route security.


In the history of modern time rise of a new power always give birth to immense concern about its repercussions. 21st century’s big question is the impact of China not only in Pacific Asia region but also in the entire world. Scholars are already arguing that Chinese hegemony will fill in the blank that was created after the end of cold war. It is clear by the analysis that there are elements which might destabilise the peace and harmony in the region. States in this region are in underprivileged position in respect to economic competence, soft power or hard power (military) superiority. Scarcity of resource will make China more aggressive in days to come. Nonetheless it is undeniable fact that China also holds the very centre position of economy which benefits the region immensely. Its execution of trade and aid as soft power tool is leaving a good impact throughout the region. Moreover it is evident that mutual interest between China and its neighbour often overlaps in economic and political interests which adds weight to the stability. Chinese business relations with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and political sympathy over Burma and North Korea gives it a good grip on the regions overall politics and economy. Thus how China’s rise will have overall impact relies on how long China holds on to ‘Peaceful Rise’ strategy. It will be interesting to observe how China change its strategy once it becomes the super power and match political and military ability with US.




Bibliography:

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Hutton, W.(2007),preface. The writing on the wall: China and the West in the 21st century. London, Little Brown.

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