Saturday 18 December 2010

Rise of China and Pacific Asia

China boosts a civilisation that is 3000 years old. Recent rise of China since 1978 only can be compared with the rise of United States between the Civil War and the First World War in 1914. Last 27 years of reform and growth has shown the world the magnitude of China’s labour force, creativity and purchasing power. Academics and policy makers started debating the rise of China from as early as beginning of twentieth century but the intensity of the debate increased after the end of cold war. As the old saying goes, nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only interests — and these interests can be achieved in a myriad of ways. China’s rise will certainly shape this region friends and foes status quo and policies economically, politically and militarily. To understand the gravity of the overall affect on the region this essay will look into these three aspects.

Though this region can be defined with forty countries near Pacific Ocean, this essay will mention more about the states that has more significance in the rise of China, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. However the general arguments apply to most of the country and the influence of China is not limited to the Pacific Asia region only. The stability of Chinese economy depends on lot of factors that might changes in course of time. Economic relations with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan and other states often overlap with political interests. Demand of resource may require her to adopt aggressive energy policy which might change the security environment. Integrating Taiwan and adhering North Korean and Burmese regime under constant pressures from United States and its allies Japan and South Korea is big political challenges for China.

Economic Impact:

Firstly let us explore the economical consequences for the region. Chinese economy depends to an unhealthy degree on exports. According to CIA fact book China is second largest exporting country (roughly 40% of GNP compared to more normal 20% at most for a large and populous continental state) (www.cia.gov, 15th Dec 10). China’s continuous growth rate and its future domestic challenges require it to continue its growth. Small neighbour countries thus suffer from a big economic competitor who is not easy to compete with. Though Japan, South Korea, Taiwan has strong export link with China, they hardly can deny Chinese upper hand on economic policy choices.

The implications of China’s globalization and rise as a major economic power can also be seen in its impact both on Beijing and on policy deliberations in Taipei, Tokyo, and Seoul. ( Nanto,D & Avery,E. 2006.p2, www.fas.org). These cities hold huge Chinese trade interests, especially in technological sector. Rise of China is enabling it to go into wider world market and making it less dependant into these big cities of the region. Hence China's pursuit of bilateral and regional trade agreements with neighbouring countries is more about politics than economics. Its "free-trade agreement" with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), for example, covers only a small share of its commerce with the countries in question; it is simply an effort to calm their fears of being swamped by their huge neighbour.

China being the big horse in the region after Japan and holding ‘developing’ label can exert policies that might not regard the regional economic consequences as it should.
Fred Bergsten blamed China for the failure of Doha Round of international trade negotiations.Beijing’s demand to have no liberalisation obligations has given birth of a new category of membership ("recently acceded members") to justify its recalcitrance, he further added.(Bergsten, 2008),

However there are positives elements of China’s economic rise as well. Zheng Bijian argued ‘China's peaceful rise will further open its economy so that its population can serve as a growing market for the rest of the world, thus providing increased opportunities for - rather than posing a threat to the international community.’ (Bijian, 2005.) China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have strong vested interests in the smooth and continuous operation of the system. Japanese investment and technology are critical to Chinese future, as is an amicable relationship with Tokyo. This has given some fresh air into their mutual conflicts.

Economic integration in there is not as extensive as that in the European Union or under the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), but it is developing rapidly. Not only are these economies trading more extensively with each other, but their production processes are becoming vertically integrated. China acts as the manufacturing platform while neighbouring countries provide investment capital, finance, technology, management skills, and expertise.The economies of this region thus are the beneficiary of this trend.

Political Impact

Secondly let us look at the political impacts in the region. The underlying political trend in this region is mostly about Chinese competition with Japan and US. However it is interesting to note that China’s foreign policy is determined to remain in peaceful discourse to achieve her goal. Chinese foreign policy is exerted mostly by peaceful soft power projections and predominantly via trade deals. Taiwan’s investors own roughly 70% of China’s information technology industry. By creating a dependency by Taiwan’s businesses on Chinese workers, subsidiaries, sources of supply, and markets, China has sought to win the “hearts and minds” of Taiwanese business interests. Also in comparison to western aids China is deliberately very generous in its aid policy by not attaching many conditions like human rights and labour condition etc; In return they are seeking maximum possible supports from the recipient nations for their international political objectives. (Bergsten, F.2008).

Another political aspect in the region that determines Chinese role is the political connection with regions authoritarian regimes. Burma’s economic and political lifeline is very much dependant of Chinese assistance. When US have cut off virtually all economic and diplomatic relations in protest of its authoritarian regime and suppression of democracy, China even increased their assistance to them.

China is the biggest trade partner and main source of food, arms and fuel of another controversial country in the region North Korea. It is not practical at all for western allies to ignore China in addressing North and South Korea’s tension. China is a vital member of Six Party Talks to address North Korean Nuclear crisis. Rise of China might make them bolder in supporting these nations. Thus the instability created by this two country in the region will rely heavily on how China regard its relation with these states.

‘Resource’ is another key word to define Chinese political discourse in the region after the ideological status quo. Thus Chinese diplomacy is increasingly driven by the need to make sure that it has dependable, diversified, secure oil reserves and the means to get them to China. (Hutton, W.2007.p.x237). To achieve these goals Chinese foreign policy included options like awarding aid, forgiving national debt, and helping build roads, bridges, stadiums, and harbours. Beijing's access to foreign resources is necessary both for continued economic growth and, because growth is the cornerstone of China's social stability, for the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Hutton argued that ‘For decades the doctrine of peaceful rise meant that China has tried to secure energy and raw materials without confronting the United States and the West. (Hutton, W.2007.p.237).

Reunification with Taiwan topped the China’s agenda after Hong-Kong and Macau’s return to China in1997 and 199 respectively. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman reminded the world after President Chen’s re-election in 2004, that ‘No one should underestimate China’s resolve to achieve unification’, for which Beijing was ready to pay any price the PRC.( South China Morning Post, 15th April 2004, Tubilewicz,C. 2006.p.256). Waldrone expressed pessimistic opinion about this ‘at present neither China nor the United States has any clear idea of how to resolve this problem, nor has it rest of Asia grasped the stake it has in what happens. (Waldrone, A. 2005, p.730).

Military Impact

Finally let us look at the military consequences that the region will face by rise of China. Waldrone argued that ‘China’s rearmament will probably lead to an Asia that spends far more on its militaries than is the case today, thus making war both less likely and more costly.’ (Waldrone. 2005, p.730) The likeliness of a war in this region is in not totally unrealistic. The danger of a rising power is that it overestimates its own strength and might launch a war in miscalculation or might feel in a tensed situation that a momentary advantage is slipping away, and seek pre-emptive attack. Furthermore existing tensions in this region such as the conflict of South and North Korea, Taiwanese provocation to declare its independence, disputes with Japan; possibly can produce such scenario.

Taiwan holds an important strategic position in the sea which has military and economic consequences. As a democratic state having no territorial ambition Taiwan has no ambition to interfere in this crucial sea path. However this route can be used by China as a military advantage if it gains control over Taiwan. Japan which held Taiwan from 1895 until the end of Second World War enjoyed this privilege.

Japan is more and more self –assertively nationalistic, confident of the United States’ defensive nuclear umbrella. The disputes over Senkaku islands (claimed by China as Diaoyutai) have taunted the relations significantly. It is Japan’s assistance that US would seek first to retaliate against China in any possible military disputes such as potential US invasion of North Korea. North Korea as previously been mentioned is a strong Chinese ally, pause a serious military threats to South Korea. Very recent as early as this December (2010), the world has witnessed how vulnerable is South Korea against North Korean belligerence. Here the US threats and South Korean revenge oaths fell on deaf ear after North Korea shelled a South Korean Island and killed three soldiers. Interesting fact to note from this event is that everyone was waiting to know how the Chinese response.

China’s recent naval strategy adds new concern in the region with the existing ones. It is clear that in future she intends to establish single monopoly by outsmarting US presence. Beijing is reported to be helping Pakistan build a port at Gwadar, upgrading a military airstrip in the South China Sea and monitoring stations in Myanmar, and negotiating for naval facilities in Bangladesh. The rise of China will encourage her to set up more vigorous display of strength in order to display the strength for safeguarding the country's interests, the capability of reciprocal deterrence and to control international shipping route security.


In the history of modern time rise of a new power always give birth to immense concern about its repercussions. 21st century’s big question is the impact of China not only in Pacific Asia region but also in the entire world. Scholars are already arguing that Chinese hegemony will fill in the blank that was created after the end of cold war. It is clear by the analysis that there are elements which might destabilise the peace and harmony in the region. States in this region are in underprivileged position in respect to economic competence, soft power or hard power (military) superiority. Scarcity of resource will make China more aggressive in days to come. Nonetheless it is undeniable fact that China also holds the very centre position of economy which benefits the region immensely. Its execution of trade and aid as soft power tool is leaving a good impact throughout the region. Moreover it is evident that mutual interest between China and its neighbour often overlaps in economic and political interests which adds weight to the stability. Chinese business relations with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and political sympathy over Burma and North Korea gives it a good grip on the regions overall politics and economy. Thus how China’s rise will have overall impact relies on how long China holds on to ‘Peaceful Rise’ strategy. It will be interesting to observe how China change its strategy once it becomes the super power and match political and military ability with US.




Bibliography:

Baijan,Z. China's "Peaceful Rise" to Great-Power Status, Foeign affairs, September/October 2005

Bergsten, F (2008), A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge. Foreign Affairs, July-August 2008.

Hutton, W.(2007),preface. The writing on the wall: China and the West in the 21st century. London, Little Brown.

Jianhai,B & Zweig,D (2005). China's Global Hunt for Energy . Foreign Affairs. September/October 2005

Nanto,D & Avery,E. (2006) . The Rise of China and Its Effect on Taiwan, Japan,
and South Korea: U.S. Policy Choices, available : http://www.google.com/custom?q=rise+of+china&sa=Search&cof=LW%3A600%3BBIMG%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.fas.org%2Fpaper2.jpg%3BL%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.fas.org%2Ffas_banner.gif%3BLH%3A50%3BAH%3Acenter%3BGL%3A0%3BAWFID%3A0d60397048482b28%3B&domains=fas.org&sitesearch=fas.org ,accessed on 15th Dec 2010.

Tubilewicz,C (2006),Cross Strait Relations and China’s Reunification Prospects, Critical Issues In Contemporary China,London, Routledge.
Waldrone,A( 2005),The Rise of China Military and Political Implications, Calcutta House offprint.

Religious Resurgence and Globalisation

Religion is in a dramatic rise. Boston University’s professor Peter Berger gave a brief account of religions resurgence in his speech at Pew Forum's biannual Faith Angle Conference on religion, politics and public life. He regarded Mormonism as probably the fastest growing denomination worldwide. Islam is exploding ,especially in Europe, Judaism is certainly globalizing, American Hasidic agents have been very influential in Eastern Europe , Buddhism is spreading in the oddest places; the estimate now is that about 800,000 Americans are converts to Buddhism from other religions. Hinduism is spreading through a number of organizations like the Hare Krishna movement, the Sai Baba movement in a very interesting way. (Berger,P( 2006), www.pewforum.org). This global resurgence of religion and its connection to globalisation is debatable issue and a concrete conclusion would not do justice on rationality. This essay would argue that the underlying link between globalisation and religion could be complementary as well as contradictory. Globalisation is defined by the increasing global connectivity and interconnectedness in the social, cultural, economic, political integration. Religion is not excluded from this process. In parallel the major world religions also can be defined that they primarily seek to integrate all human being under a set of spiritual belief and connect them for a common objective. To analyse the connection of globalisation with the religious resurgence this essay will consider two perspective of this phenomenon. One is how the forces of globalisation have complemented the revival of religions and the second is how religious community is resisting the elements of globalisation that threatened the religion.

The major world religions are taking advantage of the opportunities awarded by globalisation to transform their messages and reach a new global audience. (Thomas, 2010, p.101).Pope Benedict XVI was on a state visit to United Kingdom in September 2010. The attention this visit has received through wide media coverage cannot be compared with the last visit of the Pope John Paul II in 1982. Globalisation has undoubtedly increased the audience who adores Catholicism to experience this visit closely on television or on internet. It has also facilitated immense debates over papal apology on sexual abuse of catholic priests. We cannot imagine Osama Bin Laden recruiting Al Qaeda operatives to bring down Twin Tower just over a century ago when plane was not invented.

Globalisation gives greater influences to religious Diasporas. Local religious groups are now able to interact with other groups that exist thousands of miles away. This interaction could relate to financial aid, sharing intelligence and literature, new policy promotion and exchange of mutual networks and influence. Religious organisations in developing countries are getting assistance from their associates from developed country so that now they do not have to rely on local donors. According to Channel S a British Bangladeshi TV Channel (814 on sky) Charity Department, they have raised £146,137.98 in 2007 only in the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. This money will equally be distributed amongst 27 organisations which includes charity like ‘Muslim Aid,’ which operates throughout the Muslim world, Bairul Aman Masjid in Toronto, Canada and a Muslim centre in Dublin. (RFC, www.chsuk.tv).

South Asian ethnic communities in Britain are regularly contributing to build more mosques, Islamic centres and Madrashas (Islamic school) in their country of origin Bangladesh, Pakistan or India. Same way Christian’s presence in Latin America and Africa were established in last century. Hindus, Buddhist were able to increase their religious propagation by building churches, Pagodas, Mandir in most of the continents of the world in last century. Furthermore internet and television has removed the barrier of distance for religious groups to propagate and communicate.

Religious transnational organisations are recognised as one of the most significant nonstate actors to contribute in changing nature of international security. (Thomas, 2010, p.98). These non state actors are playing important role in international security and also in building peace.
Scott Thomas argued that ‘Globalisation has blurred the line between religious organisations involved in advocacy, proselytizing, or social welfare’. (Thomas, 2010, p.98). Tablighi Jamaat operates across the globe to spread Islam in a different manner than Ikhwanul Muslimin of Egypt or Jamaat E Islami in Pakistan or Bangladesh. American evangelical protestant has operations throughout the Christian world and the number of organisations to preach Christianity has increased since globalisation emerged in its full shape. The problematic part of this since they share the same religious values and principles; it is hard to distinguish them from the terrorist one. In recent ‘Wikileak revolution’ it was revealed that Lashkar-e Taiba listed as a ‘terrorist organisation’ by US, had received funding for their attack on Mumbai via their charity wing Jamaat-ud-Dawa. It was noted on the cable that Jamaat-ud-Dawa, travelled to Saudi Arabia seeking donations for new schools at vastly inflated costs – then siphoned off the excess money to fund militant operations. (www.guardian.co.uk). Thus it has become difficult for security experts and policy makers to determine these organisations ultimate aims and operational capability. Even an individual from a small Church from Florida, Pastor Terry Jones made headlines recently and there was huge tension over his provocative proposal to burn Quran.

One of the cores linking between globalisation and religion can be made via rise of secularism and religious communities’ response towards it. In recent history religious fundamentalism stood in opposition to Western-led modernity. Simon Murden noted that:
‘Globalisation put religions in an inescapable dilemma is that they could not promote their values without engaging with a world of politics and economics which was bound to affect the very nature of their religiosity and their community’. (Murden, 2008, p.430).
In respect to how they should react to this dilemma religious community takes two approaches, moderate and fundamental. Moderates are not hyper globalist; nonetheless they are pro globalisation compare to fundamentalists’ scepticism.

Liberalism or modern secular ideologies in contrary to most of the religions represent different systems for understanding, appreciating and behaving in the world. Moderates emphasises the importance of integrating and adapting with the modern elements and embrace it in order to benefit from it. Though most world religion absorbs some liberal references but ultimately it seeks to promote the idea of total obedience of human being to the creator. ‘Liberalism is a vision for economic liberation, individual choice and the removal of social restraint’. (Murden, 2008, p.427). On the other hand Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Hindu principles where individualism has got less space promotes collective society.

James Kurth noted that ‘Modernist perspective of religion judged entire societies reacting to modernization, as being irrational, unreasoning, and ‘fundamentalist”.
Increase interconnectedness and global media makes the line of conflict more apparent.
The rise of fundamentalism thus gives religion a fresh birth. The Iranian revolution in 1979 or the 1990s Hindu revivals in India are contemporary example of fundamentalist adherence. (Religion and Globalisation, www.fpri.org). Pro western Shah Pahlavi was accused of being illegitimate tyrant who had tried to ‘modernize’ Iran in violation of Islamic rule. ( Lechnar,F & Boli,J.2008.p345)

Liberalism or secularisation contributed to alienate conservative population who would not embrace material prosperity in the expense of ‘moral dignity’. Muslim scholars prescribed returning to fundamental prescriptions of Islam, to them this is the only option that can safeguard a devoted Muslim from modern unholy elements that comes with globalisation package and wipe out piety. Fundamentalist fears the integration will lead to a decline of religious values and the compromise will lead to ultimate decline. James Kurth argued that ‘this religious community are almost like social fossil and they will be in conflict with the enlightened centre and secular groups of the society’. However he regarded these conflicts to be peripheral in space, temporary in time, and marginal in importance: In the end, secularization, which is now massively reinforced by globalization, will eliminate these fossils and conflicts’. (Religion and Globalisation, www.fpri.org).

Samuel Huntington presented religions perspective in globalised world as a contributory factor to differentiate civilisations. He argued that ‘the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural and it is the ultimate phenomenon that the world faces today’ (Huntington, 1993, www.foreignaffairs.com). Religious identity is one of the highest cultural groupings in building civilizations. However it is interesting to note that, religious community is in rise notably in urbanised modern atmosphere and tends to deviate on how much their religious identity they would like to share. Proud moderates idea of European Muslim citizenship makes the definition of civilisation blurry by mixing west and Islam. Anglican Christians allowing employing gay bishops or Muslim women’s wearing modern fashionable tight jeans with head scarf is constant reasons for fundamentalists’ anger.

Huntington also noted that ‘globalization intensifies civilization awareness and will ultimately lead towards clash’. (Huntington, 1993, www.foreignaffairs.com). It also can be noted that Globalisation has also brought the civilisations to co-operate in times of clash. Interfaith dialogue between transnational religious organizations and nation state lead by the moderates are notably increasing in post 9/11 era. Mosques and Muslim centres across UK founded by fellow British Muslims in UK, playing an important role in preventing violent extremism and also working across the Atlantic to promote religious tolerance in homes of Islam Asia and Middle East. The Muslim nations like Pakistan, Indonesia or Saudi Arabia condemned the 9/11 attack unequivocally and also declared to co-operate with US to fight Islamic extremism. Until today Pakistan’s co-operating with US invasion of Afghanistan and Yemen’s president offered more than friendly options to US in order to tackle Al Qaeda (wikileaks, www.gurdian.co.uk). Beyond the debate important note that can be taken from Huntington’s thesis is that religion is an inevitable characteristic of this current world which will shape the pattern of political affairs in coming time by defining major civilisations and this pattern has emerge through the process of globalisation.

Urbanisation could be another evidence to prove connection between globalisation and resurgence of religion. Modern civilisation is built upon urban areas. ‘Globalisation stressed societies and produced belligerent forms of cultural revivalism’. (Murden, 2008, p.431)Since there are more people living in urban area compare to pre globalisation era the urban societies are prone to cultural revivalism. Scott Thomas noted in his essay ‘Globalised God’ that ‘religion is spreading in largely impoverished metropolises where modernisation facilitates education science, technology and prosperity’ (Thomas, 2010, p.93) Christianity was formed as an urban religious movement. He also predicts that Islam and other religion may follow the same path by expanding in urban environments. Organisations in urban area are privileged to use resources and facilities of advanced technology to propagate religion.

Another interesting aspect could be found in the objectives of religion and course of globalisation. Major faiths traditions are united in the values which espouse the notion of a shared humanity. The roots of the Major world religion are similar. The Holy Quran states:
‘O Mankind, we have created you male and female, and have made you races and tribes, that you may know each other’ (Al Quran 49:13). By the eloquence of its frequent exhortations the Islamic scripture seek to encourage the notion of a single human family. In a similar fashion
In the Old Testament, it states: “Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them Which despitefully use you and persecute you” (Matt. 5:44).In fact the claim of three Abrahamic religions as well as other major world religion is echoing one universal objective to integrate all mankind towards God and live a shared life by his commands. Major religions has traditionally been organised in a globalising fashion to further worldwide expansion or, to put it in religious terms missionisation. If we also look at the world, globalisation inspires and echoes the ultimate integrated human population. Though there is no set of spiritual prescriptions in globalisation, it has certainly facilitated spirituality to enjoy global audience.

To conclude is can be asserted that globalisation is linked to religious resurgence but characteristic of this link is not very straight forward. The tools of globalisation have facilitated the religious community to explore the world in a way that would not have been possible in the time of Buddha, Moses, Jesus or Muhammad. Religion enjoys the platform modern technological advancement has provided.
On the other hand globalisations driver western society’s individualism and secularism contradicted with religious principles which encouraged religious orthodoxy in order to save ones soul. It promotes religious pluralism and because of globalisation religious transnational actor’s increasingly becoming influential force in international relations. ( Haynes, 2007,p.124)
To conclude it can be asserted that religious resurgence and globalisation is interconnected in different level where both compliments and contradicts each other on their course.





Bibliography

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